Hopefuls likely to defy DNC

The top 2008 Democratic presidential candidates will likely campaign for the Jan. 29 Florida primary, and a potential earlier primary in Michigan, in defiance of the party’s threat to strip the states of their convention delegates, Democratic strategists said yesterday.

The candidates have been quiet about the fight between Florida Democrats and the Democratic National Committee over the DNC’s ban on holding any additional primaries before Feb. 5. But Democrats say the contenders have signaled through “back channel” communications that they will probably participate in both contests anyway.

“The January 29 Florida primary is going to happen. All of the major candidates from both parties will be on the ballot. Notwithstanding the DNC’s rules, everyone is going to be in Florida for a January tan,” said Florida Democratic media strategist Ron Sachs, who is close to the state’s party leaders and many of the candidates.

“Any conversations coming from the Democratic campaigns are best done in back channels, but their expression of dismay about [the DNC’s threats] is probably something that has already been happening. Their staff people have probably been in touch with the top party leadership,” Mr. Sachs said.

In Michigan, which was expected to move its primary to Jan. 15, state Chairman Mark Brewer said he has been getting calls from the candidates’ campaign strategists checking on the bill’s movement.

“Their staffs call me, asking what’s going on, what’s going to be the date? They wouldn’t care about the date if they did not intend to come here and campaign in the primary,” Mr. Brewer said.

“That’s been made clear to me by the campaigns expressing interest in coming to campaign in Michigan, no matter what the date,” he said.

While the top candidates were tracking the front-loading primary schedule and marking their calendars in advance of their January campaigns, none wanted to get into the crossfire between the DNC and the two states by telegraphing their plans.

With the exception of Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois, none of the front-runners responded to calls and e-mails asking whether they planned to contest the two states. Obama spokesman Bill Burton would only say he hoped that “Florida and the DNC can reach agreement so Florida’s delegates can contribute to the nomination contest.”

In May, a spokesman for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York was more forthcoming, telling The Washington Times that “we don’t really have a whole lot of say about how the primary schedule is set. All we can do is campaign wherever there is a primary or caucus, and that is what we intend to do.”

Meanwhile, a negotiated settlement over the party’s impasse seemed unlikely this week, after Florida’s congressional Democratic delegation threatened to take the DNC to court, charging that its rules ban would disenfranchise their voters in a statewide primary. “We cannot go along with anything but the state-run primary set for next January,” the 10 Democratic lawmakers, led by Sen. Bill Nelson, said in a joint statement Monday.

DNC Chairman Howard Dean wasn’t backing down either. “Dean is dug in so far on his position, I don’t know if anyone can pull him in a different position,” Mr. Sachs said.

But many Democrats think the party’s presumptive nominee, who is likely to be known by the end of February, will not allow the DNC to prevent entire state delegations from participating in the nominating process when the party gathers in Denver in August.

“In the end, the nominee, who controls the convention, will order that the Florida and Michigan delegations be seated,” said Mr. Brewer who sits on the DNC’s rules committee. “Even the co-chairman of the rules committee, James Roosevelt, thinks that.”