The 2008 money chase

OPINION:

In terms of fund-raising, cash on hand, national appeal among Democrats, her share of party support in the early primary-caucus states and the widening enthusiasm gap separating Democratic Party voters from their Republican counterparts, the third quarter was very good to the Democratic front-runner, Sen. Hillary Clinton.

The junior Democratic senator from New York raised more money during the July-September period than any presidential candidate of either party. Mrs. Clinton was also the only major candidate of either party who raised more primary money than she spent last quarter. Her third-quarter fund-raising receipts totaled $27.9 million, of which $23.8 million could be spent during the primary contests.

July-September receipts of freshman Illinois Democratic Sen. Barack Obama totaled $21.3 million, of which $20.1 million could be spent during the primaries. It was the first quarter this year in which Mrs. Clinton’s fund-raising for the primaries exceeded Mr. Obama’s. Former Sen. John Edwards (who served one term as a Democratic senator from North Carolina and failed to carry his state as the party’s vice-presidential candidate in 2004) raised only $7.2 million in the July-September period. In another victory for Mrs. Clinton, that disappointing performance forced Mr. Edwards to accept taxpayer matching funds for the primary contests (and the state-by-state spending limitations that accompany the public money).

Mrs. Clinton finished the quarter with more money available for the nominating contest than anybody else from either party. However, that noteworthy achievement is subject to a major caveat: Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney on the Republican side has demonstrated a willingness to dip into his personal fortune, which exceeds $200 million (probably by a significant amount), in order to spend whatever it might take to secure the Republican nomination. (He has already funneled $17.4 million of his wealth to his campaign.) Nonetheless, at the end of last month, the Clinton campaign had about $34 million available for the primaries, compared to $32 million in primary funds in Mr. Obama’s coffers. Mr. Edwards’s campaign bank account had about $10 million in primary money, which will be augmented by as much as $10 million in matching funds at the beginning of next year. Without Mrs. Clinton’s $10 million transfer from her 2006 New York Senate race to her 2007-2008 presidential campaign, Mr. Obama would have had $8 million more cash on hand for the primaries than she had on Sept. 30. On the Democratic side, neither Mrs. Clinton nor Mr. Obama will be accepting matching funds for the primaries, allowing them to flood the early states with potentially unprecedented sums.

Meanwhile, a mid-October USA Today/Gallup Poll, confirmed by a CNN poll conducted simultaneously and a late September ABC News/Washington Post poll, revealed that Mrs. Clinton has reached the 50 percent level of national support within her party. Nationally, she leads Mr. Obama and Mr. Edwards 50-21-13 percent in a Gallup poll; and by margins of 51-21-15 percent (CNN) and 53-20-13 percent (ABC/Post).

“Only once [Massachusetts Sen. Edward Kennedy in 1979] has a presidential candidate received as much as 50 percent support in a Gallup Poll and then gone on to lose his party’s nomination,” USA Today reported. Frank Newport, editor in chief of the Gallup Poll, noted that “there has never been a Democratic candidate with a 20-point or larger lead this late in the campaign process who did not go on to win the nomination.” Mrs. Clinton seems further buttressed by the Gallup finding that “67 percent of [her] voters say they are certain to vote for her and won’t change their minds,” a condition that does not exist in any other campaign for either party’s nomination.

In mid-November 1979, Mr. Kennedy led President Carter by 19 percentage points (55-36) before collapsing over the next four weeks, by which time he trailed the president 48-40. Barring an implausible collapse in the Clinton campaign, her Democratic opponents will likely be putting nearly all their eggs in the Iowa basket, the only early state where her lead is not substantial.

As her lead widens, the front-running Clinton juggernaut is also the beneficiary of the accelerating enthusiasm of Democratic voters, who, by a 73-21 margin, are “generally pleased” with their candidates. On the other hand, a stunning 41 percent of Republicans “wish someone else was running.”