A small, lonely sign bending in the breeze caught my attention yesterday as I waited for a traffic light to change at a busy Northern Virginia intersection.
It read: “Obama 2008.” Driving a block farther, I noted a poster for Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul.
With only two weeks to go until the Potomac River Primary, in which voters in Maryland, Virginia and the District will cast their ballots, that single campaign sign supporting the bid of Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois for the Democratic presidential nomination was an indication that soon the country’s eyes will turn to our region.
“Given how muddled things are, the 12th may be huge,” said Michael Fauntroy, assistant professor of public policy at George Mason University, speaking about the local primaries Feb. 12. “I don’t think when Maryland and Virginia decided to have their primaries on the same day they knew the impact it might have.”
Mr. Fauntroy, as well as other political commentators and analysts, are predicting that the Super Tuesday primary a week earlier will not determine the presidential nominee, at least among Democrats.
“When half the states have had a contest, then each primary takes on an added significance,” Mr. Fauntroy said. “They are roughly split on delegates … and it’s still a close race.”
Talking about close races closer to home, Mr. Fauntroy said the heightened Obama buzz after his South Carolina primary victory over Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York and former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina may have unintended influence and consequence on one hotly contested rematch in Maryland’s 4th Congressional District between incumbent Democratic Rep. Albert R. Wynn and challenger Donna F. Edwards.
“The primary for Al Wynn’s seat is very heated,” Mr. Fauntroy noted. “Mr. Obama is running on ’change,’ and if that message resonates with enough voters, and the turnout grows because of Obama, then [Donna] Edwards is the beneficiary of that” because Mr. Wynn “represents the status quo.” Mr. Wynn, seeking his ninth term in the district, which covers most of Prince George’s County and a part of Montgomery County, faces five challengers, including Ms. Edwards, who lost to him by about 3,000 votes in 2006.
The best news about this year’s presidential campaign for both parties is that it was not decided early by two states whose populations do not represent the microcosm of American society as we do here.
Our region’s voters are slowly showing signs that they can’t wait for Feb. 12 to arrive, judging from calls and electronic notices coming into my mailboxes, including one for a Saturday fundraiser in Arlington given by Black Women for Barack Obama.
Longtime civil rights activist Lawrence Guyot couldn’t wait for the presidential campaign to come to him, so he went to it.
Last week, Mr. Guyot was among a contingent of about 50 D.C. residents who spent their own money to travel, many by car, to South Carolina to drum up support for their candidates. He rode with Timothy Jenkins, a former member of the Student Nonviolent Coordinating Committee, and Taft Robinson, a Howard University student. Students from George Washington and Georgetown also participated in the campaigns.
“I got thrown into organizer’s heaven,” said Mr. Guyot, an Obama supporter, who was lodged at no charge along with seven other D.C. residents in the Charleston home of businesswoman Adeline Chukwnka.
Mr. Guyot said he was most impressed by the diversity of people working for his declared candidate when he spoke at a black church, a local high school for eight hours and a rally in Columbia that was 70 percent white.
“It was so broad-based in support it was a beautiful thing to see,” he said.
Yesterday was the first day D.C. residents, predominantly Democrats, were able to cast absentee ballots. Also yesterday, scores of American University students lined up to hear Mr. Obama receive the endorsements of Sen. Edward M. Kennedy of Massachusetts and his niece, Caroline Kennedy Schlossberg.
“The February 12th primary will be important because Super Tuesday will not guarantee who the candidate is. This [nomination] will be fought at the convention,” Mr. Guyot said.
Predictions?
“Obama has the momentum, but Clinton has a great organization, and if they can get Bill to stop saying stupid stuff, and if the campaign gets focused and gets back to talking about issues, then she’ll be fine,” Mr. Guyot said. “Otherwise, it will continue to be a complete circus.”
“None of these [regional] races are easy to predict,” Mr. Fauntroy said. Still, he took a stab. “Obama will probably get Maryland and D.C., but he falls short in Northern Virginia. He’s likely to do well in Tidewater and Richmond, but Hillary will do well enough in Virginia to offset that and take the state.”
Mr. Fauntroy, author of “Republicans and the Black Vote” and the nephew of former Delegate Walter E. Fauntroy, D.C. Democrat, can be seen delivering his political analysis these days on television.
“I suspect when things shift after Super Tuesday, the campaigns will turn their attention here.”
By then, that lonely sign bending in the breeze during my travels yesterday will be inundated with plenty of company.
Please read our comment policy before commenting.