OPINION:
Last week’s Pennsylvania primary may presage the November election. The race for the Democratic nomination has completely shifted from emphasis on issues to the character and credibility of the candidates. If this phenomenon holds, I predict Senator John McCain will become the forty-fourth president irrespective of whomever the Democrats nominate, even Al Gore if there is a deadlocked convention.
First, a Dewey Defeats Truman caveat: six months til November are several political eternities away. The economy could get far worse. Another terrorist attack could shock America. Mr. McCain could catch a cold or someone might unearth real dirt on Sens. Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama. But the advantage is now Mr. McCain’s
Mrs. Clinton is tough, bright, ambitious and determined. Mr. Obama is charismatic, smart and articulate. Both have web pages full of similar policy prescriptions. But after 15 months of campaigning, it is not surprising that their Pennsylvania slugfest gravitated to a fight over character and credibility.
Just a few weeks ago, it seemed inconceivable that a Republican would stand a chance of winning the White House. The Democratic slogans for November could begin with the number four: four more years of Bush-like policies; four dollar gasoline per gallon; and four thousand dead Americans in Iraq. However, the race has taken a different twist. Character and credibility have become, if they were not already, dominant factors.
On top of that, both Hillary and Barack took powerful hits in the ABC debate two weeks ago over Iraq and the economy. Well into the debate, Mrs. Clinton was asked about withdrawal from Iraq. Suppose her senior military commanders advised that departure would produce civil war or worse. What would the senator do? In answering, Mrs. Clinton said, I am convinced those events will not happen. Unfortunately, there was no follow up as to why or how Mrs. Clinton had come by the conviction that she had better understanding of Iraq than those on the ground.
When pushed on his plan to raise taxes, Mr. Obama reacted equally incredulously denying the fact that tax cuts lead to increased short-term revenues and tax hikes to fewer. Mr. Obama rejected that reality, convinced that his economic plan would defy the economic laws of gravity. Hence, on the two most critically important issues of peace and prosperity, both Democratic contenders stumbled badly.
Meanwhile, Mr. McCain has campaigned on straight talk, a willingness to admit mistakes as well as his flaws and flexibility in revising policy without succumbing to the charge of flip-flopping. Democrats jumped on Mr. McCain for having three different plans for addressing the housing-mortgage crises. But so what? Getting it right is more important than sticking with a plan that will not work.
Regarding Iran, Mr. McCain’s hard line approach has been softened by Mrs. Clinton’s extraordinary pledge to put American cities - possibly at risk for Tel Aviv and Tehran - by threatening to strike Iran with nuclear weapons if it nuked Israel first. Playing to the Jewish American community aside, has no one told the senator that any nuclear strike against Israel would presumably kill as many Muslims as Jews?
Mr. McCain has another underrated strength. He is good at turning around hostile audiences. In 1992, back when a Washington Post article last week was detailing his famous temper tantrums, Mr. McCain was to address a group of senior naval officers. Mr. McCain had taken the Senate floor that morning to chastise the Navy over the infamous Tailhook episode of 1991 and gross misconduct at the then annual gathering of Navy pilots in Las Vegas and then voted against buying another nuclear submarine.
During Mr. McCain”s time at the Naval Academy and his early years as a pilot, he had acquired a reputation for the fairer sex. Hence, his criticisms of “Tailhook” did not go down well in the Navy. When Mr. McCain entered the lecture room, he faced a group of tough, cynical and very angry admirals.
It took Mr. McCain about two minutes to change the atmosphere. First, he did something no respectable aviator would dare - he admitted he was a lousy pilot. That ineptness he said cost him five and a half years in a North Vietnamese jail. Responding to his comments on “Tailhook,” he turned to one four-star admiral and said in terms not printable in a family newspaper, Jerry I know I have a well-deserved reputation with the ladies. But in those days, we treated them as ladies. What happened? Case closed.
The question is whether or not Mr. McCain’s character and personality can win the day in November. I am concerned about a number of Mr. McCain’s positions especially towards Russia and China. Iraq offers no good way out whether we stay or go. And attacking Iran would be a strategic disaster. However, if the campaign continues in the current direction, and character and credibility win out, look for President McCain come January.
• Harlan Ullman is a columnist for The Washington Times.
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