Olmert tenure in doubt

TEL AVIV — Israeli lawmakers are openly questioning how long Prime Minister Ehud Olmert can remain in office amid a domestic scandal that some officials fear will ultimately block U.S. attempts to broker a peace deal with the Palestinians before President Bush leaves office.

“According to all the rumors I hear about the affair, you get the impression that the die has already been cast, and that Olmert doesn’t have a chance,” said Ran Cohen, an Israeli lawmaker from the Meretz party.

“The scenario looks like that Olmert will have to resign as soon as there is an indictment.”

Mr. Olmert has been the focus of a police probe over appointing political cronies and a generous discount on a real-estate transaction. Mr. Olmert denies any wrongdoing.

Following a surprise police investigation last week, rumors are swirling through Israel’s political system that Mr. Olmert faces charges so severe that he’ll be forced to step aside.

The speculation is so widespread that a senior Palestinian Authority official was quoted by the Ha’aretz newspaper as saying that Mr. Olmert can no longer be considered a partner for peace talks.

Israel’s courts have put a broad gag order on reporting details of the investigation for fear it will prejudice the outcome of the police probe.

Israel’s state attorney said the gag order would not be lifted at least until after Israel’s observance of its independence day, which begins after sundown May 14.

The re-emergence of Mr. Olmert’s corruption headaches has spurred calls for new elections from right-wing politicians in the Israeli opposition who oppose Mr. Olmert’s peace bid with the Palestinians.

They now accuse the prime minister of using the negotiations to shield himself from political pressure to step down.

As Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice ended a weekend visit to the region, Israeli news media reported that the sides are nearing an agreement on a common border.

Channel 1 television said such a border arrangement could require the relocation of 60,000 Jewish settlers from areas in the West Bank that would become a Palestinian state.

The prime minister’s prospects for surviving the latest corruption scandal suffered a blow when three lawmakers departed his coalition, narrowing the safety net of Mr. Olmert’s parliamentary majority.

All eyes are trained on Israeli Attorney General Menachem Mazuz, and whether he decides to issue an indictment against Mr. Olmert, a step likely to force the prime minister to either step down or suspend himself.

“If the accusations are very severe, nothing will help him,” said Eitan Cabel, a lawmaker from the Labor Party, Mr. Olmert’s chief coalition ally. “He’s become the most investigated [prime minister] in history. That’s not something negligible. Even the Labor Party can’t stand that pressure. There will be a dynamic that he needs to resign.”

Mr. Olmert’s resignation would not automatically trigger new elections. Israel’s government could theoretically continue until 2010 if the coalition can rally around a consensus candidate for prime minister.

If elections were held in the immediate future, the Likud party — headed by former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — is expected to win the most seats, according to opinion polls.

Ya’akov Edri, a lawmaker for Mr. Olmert’s Kadima party, implied that the prime minister might be forced to consider resignation if the allegations are particularly bruising. “If the affair is serious, we have to look at the options.”