In 1981, Andrei Amalrik, a Soviet dissident writer, wrote a book titled “Will the Soviet Union Survive Until 1984?” It did. Barely. Mr. Amalrik was off by seven years.
It is now 2004 and 20 years later. The Soviet Union is gone for good. And so the question has now become: Will Russia survive? The Economist recently prepared an obituary for Russia under the startling title: “Death wish: Russia appears to be committing suicide.”
Some countries have a demographic problem, like France or Germany but, said The Economist, Russia faces a demographic “catastrophe.” Basing its estimate on U.N. surveys, the Economist predicted a population decline from the present 143 million to 120 million by 2030, a drop of 16 percent.
“How low could Russia’s population go?” asks the Economist. “Perhaps to 100 million by 2050, or less if the country continues to neglect its AIDS problem. Tuberculosis is rife. Russia’s suicidal bent could eventually threaten its disintegration, if its vast, depopulated territory became ungovernable.”
Since the breakup of the Soviet Union, Russia’s population has fallen by 3.5 million and there have been 10 million more deaths than births. The population “growth” rate is negative, -0.45 percent.
There is very little chance of a population bounceback because of widespread infertility caused by (1) overuse of abortion and (2) sexually transmitted diseases. Male life expectancy is 59.91 years compared with female life expectancy of 73.27 years. Fewer than half of 16-year-old Russian boys will reach 60.
What accounts for this catastrophe? Poverty is partly to blame but the biggest reason is the Russian males’ “wanton disregard for their own health… especially their high regard for vodka,” says the Economist. Their binge drinking is responsible for susceptibility to heart disease, industrial and traffic accidents.
Russia’s parlous state is bound to have serious effects on its future as a European power at a time when the rest of Europe, including the one-time Soviet satellite countries in Eastern Europe are really bouncing back from their dependent role. The requirements for membership in the European Union would be too onerous for present-day Russia to meet.
Yet this supposedly suicidal Russia ended 2003 with its fifth straight year of growth, averaging 6.5 percent annually. With the price of oil roaring ever upward, the Russian economy has rebounded. Real fixed capital investments have averaged gains greater than 10 percent over the last four years and real personal incomes have averaged increases over 12 percent.
Russia has also improved its international financial position since the 1998 financial crisis. Its foreign debt has declined from 90 percent of GDP to about 28 percent. Other problems include a weak banking system, a poor business climate that discourages both domestic and foreign investors, corruption, local and regional government intervention in the courts, and widespread lack of trust in institutions.
Despite all this bad news, Secretary of State Colin Powell was never more optimistic about Russia’s future.
“I do not see Russia sliding back down into the abyss of the Soviet Union,” he said Oct. 18. “But they may not be moving as quickly or in as steadied a manner as we might like to see toward democracy, but I think they are still moving in the correct direction.”
Suicidal? Moving in the correct direction? Who can tell? As Winston Churchill once said: “I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia,” he declared. “It is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma.”
Arnold Beichman, a Hoover Institution research fellow, is a columnist for The Washington Times.
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