New hope in Lebanon

Lebanon has a new government — and, with it, renewed hope.

The new government announced last Tuesday was formed by Prime Minister Najib Mikati. With only 14 ministers, fewer than in the past, this is a smaller, leaner Cabinet. It has the task of overseeing parliamentary elections in May — assuming they are held on time — and the Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon, intended to be completed by the end of April.

This government’s task will not be simple. Its future depends on the acquiescence of all concerned parties — the mosaic of religious and political groups in Lebanon — as well as of Syria and Israel. That provides ample room for things to go amiss.

“Under the circumstances, this is the best formula,” Gebran Tueni, publisher or Beirut’s An-Nahar newspaper told United Press International. It is hoped the nomination of Mr. Mikati — a first-time premier — will end the two-month Cabinet crisis that brought Lebanon perilously close to renewed conflict.

The Feb. 14 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri forced Omar Karami’s government to resign after intense pressure developed in the street. Lebanon’s opposition blamed Syria, and Karami’s government by default, for the killing.

Massive protests demanded the government’s resignation and departure of Syrian forces that have occupied Lebanon since they entered in 1976 to stop the 15-year civil war, which then was in its second year. These unprecedented protests, and the rare unity of Lebanese opposition parties, combined with international pressure, resulted in Syrian agreement to begin removing its troops and intelligence services.

The political impasse in which Lebanon soon found itself, along with a series of bombings in Christian neighborhoods, momentarily revived the specter of the devastating civil war.

While the new Cabinet is generally seen as being politically unattached, there remains a close link to Syria: The foreign minister, a close Syrian ally, will remain in his position.

Of the former Cabinet, only two ministers will stay on, notably the aforementioned Foreign Minister Mahmoud Hammoud, a Shi’ite politician who is very close to Damascus as well as to Lebanon’s pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud, and Health Minister Mohammed Khalifeh, also a Shi’ite and a close ally of Speaker Nabih Berri.

Former Interior Minister Elias Murr, who also is Mr. Lahoud’s son-in-law, was given the key roles of deputy prime minister and defense minister. The Lebanese defense minister does not necessarily play a major role in regional politics. But the post is, nevertheless, important in relations with Syria.

As Syria continues moving military and intelligence units out of Lebanon, as demanded by U.N. Security Council Resolution 1559, the task of ensuring its withdrawal ultimately falls on the Defense Ministry. So, too, will the responsibility for the Lebanese army, which should in principle replace Syrian forces in strategic positions, mainly in south Lebanon along the Israeli border. Hezbollah now controls most of the south.

The presence of ministers allied to Syria in the new government will ensure attention to the interests of Damascus and that, though its forces no longer will be in the country, Syria’s influence will still be felt.

Some Lebanese criticized this development. “It is a slap in the face of the opposition,” Edmond Saab, executive editor in chief of An-Nahar, told UPI.

The majority of the new ministers, however, seem politically neutral, most having no specific political affiliations, to the extent this is possible in Lebanon. Mr. Tueni, who supports the opposition, sees this as best deal, given the circumstances. “We got the ministries of Justice and the Interior,” he told UPI. Those are important positions to guarantee fair elections. “And the new prime minister has promised to get rid of the security chiefs,” under whose watch Mr. Hariri was killed.

The Washington-based Arab American Institute released results of a poll of 600 Lebanese by Zogby International and Information International that found overwhelming majorities, both those considering themselves in the “opposition” and among the “loyalists,” want a national dialogue on carrying out the Taef Accords and support holding elections on schedule. However, that strong consensus does not extend to the issues of disarming Hezbollah, which many Lebanese consider a resistance movement.

Another key position, the Interior Ministry, upon which will fall the task of organizing and holding the elections, was given to Hassan Sabeh, a retired General Security officer. He has no apparent political affiliations, and Mr. Tueni said the opposition accepted his nomination.

France, Lebanon’s former patron, welcomed the new Lebanese government, calling it a “positive step.” Foreign Ministry Spokesman Jean-Baptiste Matier said: “We salute the formation of the Lebanese government, and it is important at present that this Cabinet organizes legislative elections on schedule to enable the Lebanese people to express their opinion freely without any foreign interference.”

It now remains to be seen just how much progress will be possible from a Cabinet lacking traditional political “tenors,” and how independent its decision-making will remain.

Claude Salhani is international editor for United Press International.