Lebanon’s revolving politics

Lebanon’s sickly politics took a sudden and unexpected turn for the worse Tuesday with the assassination of Pierre Gemayel, a prominent anti-Syrian Cabinet minister. He earns the grim distinction of becoming the first minister of Fouad Siniora’s government to face a violent death.

Pierre Gemayel was born into a family of politicians. His now deceased grandfather was the leader of the Gemayel clan whose namesake he shares. The elder Pierre founded Lebanon’s Phalange Party — or Kataeb, in Arabic. Over the years, Grandfather Pierre survived multiple assassination attempts. Both his sons served as presidents. Bashir was assassinated in a massive explosion a few weeks after his election in 1982 and before he could assume the presidency. He was replaced by his brother Amin.

When Amin’s term ended before the parliament could appoint a successor, he decided he would not stay more than another minute in the presidential palace in Baabda. Amin appointed two prime ministers; a Muslim, Selim Hoss, and a Christian, Gen. Michel Aoun.

Gen. Aoun found himself filling an even larger leadership vacuum when the Muslims refused to serve. The civil war had hardly abated when, as prime minister, Gen. Aoun presided over one of Lebanon’s worst political crises, the War of Liberation. During this bitter war he took on the Syrians and their Lebanese allies. In what was an already ugly and protracted civil war, the War of Liberation was probably the ugliest chapter.

Today the retired general-turned-politician conjures admiration and condemnation with equal passion. His supporters see in him a man not afraid to take on the political establishment, who promises to fight corruption and who can lead Lebanon out of the political tempest towards calm and prosperity.

In the confusion of Lebanon’s revolving politics, shifting alliances, power plays and political assassinations, Gen. Aoun found himself on the wrong side of the Syrians. He was forced to seek refuge first in the French Embassy in Beirut and ultimately in France, where he stayed for the next 15 years. During his exile the general and his supporters were instrumental in getting the U.S. Congress to draft, and President Bush to approve, the Syria Accountability Act.

Only after the departure of the Syrian military from Lebanon did Gen. Aoun return from exile. He is now running for president. His supporters in the Free Patriotic Movement see in him a hero and savior. His opponents see someone they say has switched tracks on Syria.

Gen. Aoun defends himself, saying he always maintained that once Syria withdrew its forces from Lebanon he had no reason to hold grudges and supports establishing normal and cordial relations with Damascus. In fact, In a “memorandum of understanding” he established with Hezbollah, the general specifically states that he wants “full diplomatic relations with Damascus, including the exchange of ambassadors.”

Syria has long resisted exchanging diplomatic missions with Lebanon on the basis the two countries were too closely linked.

Gen. Aoun’s opponents point to his alliance with Hezbollah and other pro-Syrian forces. His bid for the presidency is opposed by the anti-Syrian bloc known as the March 14 Movement, of which the young Pierre Gemayel was an active participant.

In the ironic twists and turns that is Lebanese politics, it was largely due to the March 14 Movement that Syria pulled out of Lebanon, allowing Gen. Aoun to return to Beirut and to run for president against the March 14 candidate.

Gen. Aoun rejects the “pro-Syrian” label. He believes the solution to the question regarding Hezbollah’s weapons must be based on “trust building.”

“We have to break the circle of fear in which we live in today,” Gen. Aoun told this reporter during an interview. “If there is no exchange of trust, we remain wary of one another and it offers a permanent source of conflict. One of the first questions I asked Hezbollah was ’Tell me your fears?’ ”

Hezbollah may well have its fears. But today with the assassination of Pierre Gemayel, the minister of industry and son of the president who propelled Gen. Aoun into the deadly game of Lebanese politics, there are renewed fears more such assassinations might follow.

Claude Salhani is international editor for United Press International.