The 2004 election cycle doesn’t seem to be going the way Democrats hoped it would this year on several major political fronts.
Election strategists now say there is little if any chance that the Democrats can win back the House because of Republican gains made under congressional redistricting, or in the Senate, where most independent analysts see a likely Republican gain in seats. “There are relatively few competitive [congressional] races on the horizon. Unless that changes, it is hard to imagine significant net changes in the makeup in the House,” says elections forecaster Stuart Rothenberg.
President Bush’s job-approval rating also appears to have stabilized after a decline during the summer, and even has risen a little as the economy shows increasing signs of recovery. This week’s Gallup Poll found that 60 percent of Americans approve of the way the president is doing his job.
In another turn of events, the Democrats appear poised to lose the governorship of California in a rare public recall election that could hand the nation’s biggest state to the Republicans, which could help Mr. Bush carry the state in next year’s elections.
Meantime, Democrats are deeply divided over who will be their presidential nominee. Veteran party officials and strategists are complaining that none of the candidates looks like a winner and some want former Vice President Al Gore to enter the race.
“I would like to see [Mr. Gore] get in,” former New York Gov. Mario Cuomo said last week on WROW-AM radio in Albany, N.Y. “Right now, the Democratic voice is not a single voice. It is not a chorus. It is a babble.” The dictionary defines “babble” as “to make incoherent sounds,” he said.
Mr. Cuomo, one of the party’s most popular political leaders, is not alone in his discomfort with the Democratic presidential pack. Donna Brazile, Mr. Gore’s campaign manager in the 2000 election, also said last week that “there’s a hunger in the Democratic Party for a leader,” adding that Mr. Gore is “head and shoulders above the rest.”
But Mr. Gore has said he has no intention of running and the early Democratic presidential front-runner in Iowa and New Hampshire is former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, a liberal who opposed the war in Iraq to topple Saddam Hussein and who wants to repeal all of Mr. Bush’s tax cuts, which effectively would raise income taxes for everyone who pays them.
“All of this is true and none of it matters right now. We’re just starting the presidential race,” said Phil Noble, a Democratic strategist in South Carolina.
“It’s a crazy political environment. Bush is strong, he’s tough, he’s formidable and has as much money as anyone would want and will be very tough to beat. But I think the Democrats have a decent shot at winning,” said Mr. Noble, who chairs the Democratic Leadership Council in the state.
Harold Ickes, who was one of President Clinton’s top White House political advisers, thinks so, too.
“I think we’re going through what is expected, where you have a multicandidate field. It won’t shake out or narrow until late fall, maybe not until a little later,” Mr. Ickes said.
“While there are differences between them, we have strong candidates. They are beginning to find a voice with the president on foreign affairs and on the economy, but it’s going to take more time for those messages to jell and sharpen. I’m not at all disturbed” by what has happened thus far, he said.
As for the prospect of Gov. Gray Davis, a Democrat, being booted out of office by the voters, Mr. Ickes says “California is not a happy situation, obviously.” But he does not think that a Republican takeover will endanger Democratic presidential prospects in the state next year.
“Let’s assume for the sake of argument that Davis does not survive and a Republican replaces him. I don’t think that will have a material effect on who people vote for presidentially,” he said.
Still, Mr. Ickes cautions that “it’s very tough to take on a sitting president.”
“They will have half a billion dollars between the campaign and the Republican National Committee alone. That will be a formidable campaign,” he said.
Mr. Ickes says his party’s leading presidential contenders need to do several things to strengthen the Democrats’ chances next year. “I think they need to sharpen their message and their critique, and at the same time pose alternative programs, especially on the domestic front.”
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