Wesley Clark has gained ground on front-runner Howard Dean in the fight for the Democratic presidential nomination, apparently the result of Mr. Dean’s recent gaffes.
Mr. Clark has cut the former Vermont governor’s lead among Democratic voters from 15 percentage points to four since mid-December, according to a poll released yesterday by USA Today, CNN and Gallup.
Republican strategist David Winston said Mr. Dean had “made some inroads into Clark voters, but his recent statements have caused those voters to return back to Clark.” Mr. Winston pointed to Mr. Dean’s comments that Saddam Hussein’s capture did not make America safer, that the presidential hopeful would not prejudge Osama bin Laden until the terrorist mastermind is put on trial, and that the Democratic Leadership Council is the Republican section of the Democratic Party.
The poll, conducted Friday to Monday among 465 Democratic or Democratic-leaning registered voters, shows Mr. Dean with 24 percent support and Mr. Clark with 20 percent — a change from the group’s Dec. 15-16 poll, in which Mr. Clark had 12 percent support and Mr. Dean had 27 percent.
The four percentage point gap between Mr. Dean and Mr. Clark is a statistical tie — within the five percentage point margin of error.
Democratic strategist Mark S. Mellman said national polls do not hold much meaning for a primary, but he did note Mr. Dean’s increase in unfavorable ratings in the latest poll. Among all voters nationally, the poll found that 39 percent had an unfavorable opinion of him, compared with 24 percent in a November poll.
Even among Democrats, Mr. Dean’s negative rating has doubled from 10 percent in November to 22 percent, although his favorable ratings also increased, from 36 percent in November to 45 percent.
“Negative opinions of him are building both nationally and among Democrats,” Mr. Mellman said. “I think people are paying attention to the misstatements.”
But Democratic strategist Morris Reid, a Clinton administration official, predicted that Mr. Dean will win the nomination and attributed Mr. Clark’s boost in the latest poll to timing. Mr. Reid said the poll was conducted when the country was on high security alert and that Mr. Clark, a former Army general, is the stronger candidate on security issues. Mr. Reid predicted that the next big poll will show Mr. Dean pulling further ahead again.
Looking to the general election, however, Mr. Reid cautioned Mr. Dean to control his comments. “As a presidential candidate you can feel passionately, you just can’t make some of these outbursts,” Mr. Reid said.
Clark spokeswoman Maya Israel said the USA Today poll and state polls show that “our message is really … connecting with the voters nationally and in New Hampshire.”
Clark pollster Geoff Garin said, “People see in [Mr. Clark] the leadership qualities they are looking for in a president.”
And Mr. Dean’s campaign apparently is thinking about how to combat Mr. Clark as well. In a telephone conference call that reporters were admitted to mistakenly, Dean staffers discussed how to emphasize that their boss is a “real Democrat” and more decisive than Mr. Clark, the Arizona Republic reported Tuesday.
Mr. Reid said Mr. Clark is “hitting his stride as a candidate.” And Donna Brazile, chairwoman of the Democratic National Committee’s Voting Rights Institute, added that Mr. Clark has “a lot of appeal to people in the South.” But she agreed that “Dean is the person to beat.”
Dean spokesman Jay Carson said the other Democratic candidates simply are in a race for second place. “We plan on winning [primaries], and as long as we do that, the race for second place will be secondary,” he said.
According to an Associated Press survey released yesterday, Mr. Dean has the support of 86 Democratic “superdelegates,” the elected officials and other Democratic leaders who help nominate a candidate at the convention. Rep. Richard A. Gephardt of Missouri came in second with 58 superdelegates, and Mr. Clark was fifth, with 24 superdelegates.
Several strategists said a national poll such as the USA Today survey isn’t as meaningful in a primary as polling from the key early contests, such as Iowa and New Hampshire.
In New Hampshire, which holds its primary Jan. 27, Mr. Dean continues to lead by 20 points, but Mr. Clark seems to be gaining ground there, too, and is statistically tied with Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts for second place, according to an American Research Group poll taken Sunday to Tuesday.
Mr. Clark is still “way behind” Mr. Dean in New Hampshire, however, noted a Democratic strategist who asked not to be named. And Mr. Clark isn’t participating in the Jan. 19 Iowa caucuses, which could end up hurting him in New Hampshire.
Mr. Kerry came in third in the most recent USA Today poll, with 11 percent support. He gave a major economic speech in New Hampshire yesterday, pledging to ensure that firms that move jobs overseas are not rewarded, and that big corporations do not have special access to the White House.
“Today big corporations and K Street lobbyists trip over themselves to fund the Bush-Cheney campaign,” he said. “And it’s no surprise. In the Bush administration, you get what you pay for.”
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