It’s only a matter of weeks before the presidential-nomination contest essentially will be over and the Democratic Party will have its challenger to President Bush.
So there has been no shortage of speculation by candidates and political mavens about who must do well where in order to stay in the game as long as possible — if not exactly win the nomination outright. Every candidate has mapped out how he must perform in Iowa, New Hampshire and a host of Feb. 3 contests, including the key South Carolina primary.
Iowa, which holds its caucuses on Jan. 19, will be the first test.
Rep. Richard A. Gephardt, from neighboring Missouri, long has been favored in Iowa, especially because he won those caucuses in 1988. But Mr. Gephardt’s dreams for an easy victory have been dashed by former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, who is jockeying with him for first place in the polls there.
“We plan to win Iowa,” said Gephardt spokesman Erik Smith. “We need to be in the top tier in New Hampshire, and we have to be competitive in South Carolina.”
Some pundits have declared that if Mr. Gephardt doesn’t win Iowa, he’s finished. Asked about such a scenario, Mr. Smith said, “We’re not entertaining that notion.”
For Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, who was the front-runner for the nomination a year ago, Iowa is important, but not a deal-breaker.
“There are three tickets out of Iowa, and we will be one of those tickets,” said Kerry spokeswoman Stephanie Cutter.
Out of Iowa, the survivors will descend upon New Hampshire, which holds its primary on Jan. 27.
A year ago, Mr. Kerry was the favorite there, especially because much of the state’s population gets its news from Mr. Kerry’s hometown of Boston. But as in Iowa, Mr. Dean has crashed the party in New Hampshire. In the latest polls, Mr. Dean leads Mr. Kerry there by 18 percentage points.
“Dean is stagnating, and we are rising,” said Ms. Cutter, who said she expects Mr. Kerry to finish in one of the top two positions in New Hampshire. “This is an open field right now.”
Also counting on strong showings in New Hampshire are Wesley Clark, a retired Army general, of Arkansas and Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, who have concentrated on that state and are skipping Iowa.
In both contests, Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina hopes to place.
“We want to do well in Iowa,” said Edwards spokesman Roger Salazar. “We want to do better than expected in New Hampshire and win South Carolina.”
Mr. Edwards was born in South Carolina and has campaigned heavily there.
Steve Jarding, who has worked on several Democratic presidential campaigns including Mr. Edwards’ bid. He said Mr. Edwards “needs to come in a legitimate third in Iowa and a legitimate third in New Hampshire to have a chance in South Carolina.”
But, Mr. Jarding warned, South Carolina has become a must-win for Mr. Edwards.
“The expectation is that he’s got to win South Carolina, so it’s not going to be much boost if he does,” he said. “After South Carolina, he’s not going to have any cash left.”
Though it’s only one of seven contests on Feb. 3, South Carolina’s primary has taken on added significance because it’s the Democrats’ first Southern primary or caucus and the first one where blacks — who make up more than 40 percent of South Carolina Democratic voters — will have an impact.
The Rev. Al Sharpton of New York has seen his political stock rise there. A recent poll showed him tied for second place, four percentage points behind Mr. Dean.
“South Carolina is potentially Sharpton Country,” said Sharpton campaign manager Charles Halloran. “The energy and experience of our Palmetto State team will ensure that we leave no stone unturned in our efforts to win here.”
Also vying to make a splash in South Carolina is Mr. Clark, whose Southern roots and military background are expected to help him in the state that is home to the nation’s largest veteran population.
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