New York appears poised to elect a Democrat to the state’s top post after more than a decade with a Republican governor.
Attorney General Eliot Spitzer holds a commanding lead in the polls, and some state Democratic operatives hope the momentum from the top of the ticket invigorates the Democratic base and helps win House seats in the state as well.
“Democrats will be very motivated to vote this year because of the promise of Eliot Spitzer as governor,” said Blake Zeff, spokesman for the New York State Democratic Party. “There is no question we will be able to motivate our voters and turn them out. I don’t think the Republicans can say the same.”
Mr. Spitzer, the state’s attorney general since 1998, faces Nassau County Executive Tom Suozzi in his party’s primary and then Republican John Faso, a former state Assembly Minority Leader.
Polls show Mr. Spitzer firmly ahead. A Zogby poll conducted Aug. 15-21 found Mr. Spitzer with 61 percent of support to Mr. Faso’s 26 percent. An Aug. 23 Quinnipiac poll had Mr. Spitzer leading Mr. Suozzi 78 percent to 15 percent and leading Mr. Faso 65 percent to 17 percent. Other polls have been similar.
Most observers said the change is a natural political backlash after years of Republican governorship in a state that has alternated more or less consistently between Democrat and Republican governors for the past 50 years.
“It’s a swing state at this level,” said Steven Brams, professor of politics at New York University. “We’ve had a steady alternation.”
Republican George E. Pataki has held the governor’s post since 1995 and has said he will not seek a fourth term.
Mr. Brams said Mr. Spitzer made the most of the opportunity.
“Spitzer has made charges about a do-nothing administration that rang true with many,” he said. “Pataki’s eye has been on the presidency for a long time.”
But Republican officials aren’t conceding the race yet.
“New Yorkers have to choose — do they want someone to raise their taxes or cut them? And I think they’ll choose cut them, and John [Faso] is the one to do that,” said Ryan Moses, executive director of the state Republican Party.
New York is being watched by many this election year for other reasons, such as having some key competitive House races. And while Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton is expected to easily retain her Senate seat here, she’s actively campaigning across the state amid speculation of a 2008 presidential bid.
The most competitive House race in New York is the fight for the seat of retiring Rep. Sherwood Boehlert, a more liberal Republican. The Cook Political Report also lists the races of Reps. John E. Sweeney and John R. “Randy” Kuhl Jr., both Republicans, as competitive. And three other upstate Republican-held seats also have the potential to become competitive, the Aug. 16 report says.
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