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Wednesday, November 26, 2003

Russian shadow on Georgia

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The good news for the people of former Soviet Georgia is that their little Caucasus republic has advanced 160 years in political development in only a decade. The bad news is they still live in a violent, complex neighborhood, cursed with national borders that were expressly designed not to work.

Georgia's "velvet revolution" Saturday toppled veteran President Edward Shevardnadze, who has dominated its politics for most of the past 30 years, with no loss of life and in an impressive example of national consensus exercised through massive demonstrations. Further, Nino Burdzhanadze, the nation's young new leader for the next 45 days, has hit the ground running, emphasizing close, good ties with Russia and seeking renewed close relations with the Untied States.

Mrs. Burdzhanadze, a 39-year-old lawyer is a far cry from Mr. Shevardnadze, a tough, shrewd cynical old powerbroker who ran Georgia as his private fiefdom on behalf of Soviet President Leonid Brezhnev as long ago as the 1970s. She is an even farther cry from Zviad Gamsakhurdia, Georgia's leader after it achieved independence from the collapsing Soviet Union in the early 1990s.

Mr. Gamsakhurdia appeared a throwback, not to the Soviet or even the czarist era, but to the romantic and ineffectual European liberal revolutionaries of the 1830s. He gave long, flowery speeches about liberty while stamping out every minor criticism of his government. But he did not know how to make the trains run in time, or even at all. He gave the impression of sliding into fascism, without even realizing it, but his fascism was not threatening because he could not even do that well. His elite troop could not goose-step on time; they always fell out of step.

Mr. Shevardnadze was an improvement on this. Arguably, he brought Georgia back to the cynical, empty Brezhnev era of the 1960s and '70s. But the revolution that toppled him so quickly, totally and bloodlessly Saturday appeared a dream rerun of Czechoslovakia's "Velvet Revolution" in 1989.

Does that mean Georgia, the most remote Christian European outpost in the wilds of the Caucasus, maintaining its proud heritage and identity through 1,200 years of being a Christian island in an Islamic sea, can look forward to a democratic, stable and prosperous future at last?

Left to itself, the answer might well be "Yes." The Georgian people have certainly shown an enthusiastic commitment for restoring their long-desired close ties with Western Europe and the United States. But it is still likely to be easier said than done.

First, Mrs. Burdzhanadze and her new government will have to come to terms with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, who has been quietly, slowly but relentlessly putting the squeeze on Georgia to toe his Kremlin line.

Mr. Shevardnadze bought time with Moscow by agreeing to allow Russia to retain military bases in his territory. This is of special importance to Russia because of the oil wealth of the neighboring Caspian basin and because of its long, bloody continued struggle to crush Islamic separatist guerillas in neighboring Chechnya.

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