Democrats remain divided after Iowa

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Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean's failure to capitalize on his front-runner status in last night's Iowa caucuses shows how divided and uncertain the Democrats are about who their candidate should be, setting the stage for a longer-than-expected nomination battle.

Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry's stunning come-from-behind victory -- after being given up for dead a few weeks ago -- and North Carolina Sen. John Edwards' surprising second-place showing, turned the nominating contest into a three-way race with Mr. Dean, who two weeks ago led all Iowa polls.

Mr. Dean remains the leading candidate in New Hampshire, but his defeat, especially by such a large margin, ensures a bitter battle in next week's New Hampshire primary and in subsequent contests, such as South Carolina, where both Mr. Kerry and Mr. Edwards can win.

With Mr. Dean's declaring he will fight to the end, the Democratic contest could last well into February or March, a scenario a Bush campaign strategist says favors the president.

A long, protracted fight for the nomination in which the Democrats beat up on each other only can work to the president's advantage, they think.

"It is natural for the Democratic Party to be fractured at this point. There was no dominating Democrat, no big foot, at the beginning of this nominating process, and that's what we're still facing now after Iowa," said Terry Michael, former press secretary to the Democratic National Committee.

Besides invigorating the campaigns of both Mr. Kerry and Mr. Edwards, who will use their performances to rally support, it also appears to have ended Missouri Rep. Richard A. Gephardt's candidacy, the 1988 Iowa winner, and serves as the first major crack in the support that Mr. Dean has been able to rally this year as an antiestablishment, antiwar candidate opposed to the Iraq conflict.

It shows that Democratic voters, besides supporters Mr. Dean has cultivated using the Internet, are concerned about his viability as a challenger to Mr. Bush and might be looking for someone with more "experience" in foreign policy and national-security issues, something that Mr. Kerry charged that Mr. Dean does not have.

According to an entrance poll by the Associated Press, Mr. Kerry got an especially strong boost from voters who said the most important candidate quality was that he "has the right experience." Among the roughly 15 percent of voters who said that, more than half told pollsters that they supported Mr. Kerry.