Baghdad behemoth

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John Negroponte, the first U.S. ambassador to be accredited to a post-Saddam Iraqi government will, once his Baghdad embassy becomes fully staffed, preside over the largest American legation in the world. With the exception of the U.S. Department of State on Washington's C Street, no other American diplomatic building will hold as many as Baghdad's expected 1,600 diplomats and assorted staff.

While the exact figures are not yet final, the number of Americans who will work for 10 government agencies out of the Baghdad legation is estimated anywhere from 900 to 1,500, and maybe more once security personnel are factored in. The rest will be around 600 Iraqi support staff. The 2005 operating cost of the embassy is estimated to hover around the $1 billion mark, not including initial construction costs.

Intelligence analysts speaking on condition of anonymity told United Press International that placing such large numbers of American government personnel in any one place in such a volatile area as Baghdad "is a silly and dangerous idea given the threat level in the country."

Indeed, regardless of what security precautions are taken, housing that many U.S. diplomats in a high-profile location such as Baghdad presents a certain danger. An embassy of this size and significance would almost be a challenge to people trying to hurt the United States in Iraq. And we know there is no shortage of people that fit that description.

Furthermore, the American diplomats assigned to Baghdad will live and work in the so-called "Green Zone," secured behind walls, razor wire, sandbags and protected by a detachment of soldiers with tanks and armored personnel carriers. Their limited expeditions out into "the real Iraq" will be few and they will find themselves escorted by phalanxes of heavily armed security guards as they ride in armored cars to and from their appointments. U.S. diplomats in Iraq will be limited in their mixing with Iraqis, and those they meet will be vetted carefully.

A sure gamble is that many of the diplomats assigned to the Baghdad mission will never set foot outside the Green Zone. They will remain secluded in the relative safety of the diplomatic compound and will hardly ever experience cultural or social exchanges with Iraqis. This is hardly the way to win over the hearts of the people, let alone conduct diplomacy.

Additionally, much of the information gathering will be limited by the diplomats' lack of direct contact with the Iraqi people and lack of language training to allow direct communication with Iraqis. As a result, the diplomats will have to rely more on Iraqi intermediaries, with all the drawbacks that represents.

Recent history has shown placing large groups in unfriendly environments can lead to disaster. On April 18, 1983, an attack on the U.S. Embassy in Beirut left 63 people dead, including the CIA's Middle East director and the entire Central Intelligence Agency's Middle East contingent, all killed attending a meeting inside the embassy at the time of the blast. Another 120 people were injured in the attack, for which Islamic extremists claimed responsibility.

Later that year, in October, another suicide bomber drove a van filled with 12,000 pounds of explosives into a building near Beirut International Airport that housed large elements of the Marine Battalion Team serving with the Multinational Force in Lebanon. Again, the positioning of large numbers under a single roof was the cause of 241 American servicemen -- mostly Marines -- losing their lives.

Sadly, the list is longer. In Iraq, a number of government buildings and diplomatic missions have been targeted by insurgents/terrorists with disastrous consequences.

With that in mind, State Department and intelligence analysts have questioned, off the record, the logic (or lack thereof) of placing that many diplomats in a predelineated space.

Others, however, speak of "confidence and optimism" to describe the mood in the Bureau of Diplomatic Security as more than 100 DS special agents, analysts and contractors prepare to deploy to the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad.

Additionally, all State Department personnel deploying to Iraq, including Ambassador Negroponte, have had to undergo the latest training in terrorist tactics. They have been required to take the diplomatic security antiterrorism course, which covers surveillance detection, emergency medical training and other practical topics including training in firearms.

But with today's technology -- cell phones, the Internet, highly secure video conferencing capabilities -- one could ask why the State Department did not choose to base more diplomats in peripheral embassies, such as in Amman, Ankara, Damascus, Nicosia or Kuwait instead of concentrating them all in one place where despite all the training in the world, they remain vulnerable?

Claude Salhani is international editor of United Press International.