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Members of the U.S. team investigating the fate of Capt. Scott Speicher have concluded that the Navy fighter pilot is dead, according to sources close to the mission.
But his remains have not been found. A promising lead to finally resolving the matter vanished recently when buried remains thought to be Capt. Speicher's turned out not to be of the downed pilot.
The sources said Army Maj. Gen. Keith Dayton, the former director of the Iraq Survey Group (ISG), has told officials in recent days that investigators now believe the pilot shot down in 1991 over Iraq is not alive.
The conclusion is based largely on the fact that all leads to Capt. Speicher's whereabouts have turned up no evidence he is alive.
"What I have heard [Gen. Dayton] say is there is no evidence he was ever in captivity," said a senior defense official.
ISG officials now believe Capt. Speicher either died in the crash or shortly thereafter in Iraq's vast western desert, a second official said.
Capt. Speicher's F-18 Hornet was shot down on the first night of Operation Desert Storm on Jan. 17, 1991. The canopy on his crashed jet was photographed some distance from the crash site west of Baghdad, giving rise to hope that he had ejected and was alive.
Later, an Iraqi defector claimed to have seen him alive, prompting the Navy to change his status from killed in action to missing-captured.
But the ISG's investigation since the fall of Baghdad in April 2003 has failed to find any evidence he is alive. Two once-promising tips failed to resolve the matter.
In one case, Bedouin tribesmen said they believed Capt. Speicher was buried near the crash site.









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