Numbers do not favor Kerry's bid

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Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry will have to carry nearly three-fourths of the states in the North, Midwest and West to overcome President Bush's strength across most of the South, presidential campaign advisers said yesterday.

A state-by-state snapshot review of the preliminary electoral numbers shows that at this point in the campaign Mr. Bush continues to maintain his party's vaunted lock on most of the Old Confederacy, the border states and the western Plains states. Of the states in these regions, only three are considered tossups right now -- West Virginia and Florida, which Mr. Bush carried in 2000, and New Mexico, which he lost by 366 votes.

If the president's Southern advantage continues to hold up over the next eight months, Mr. Kerry will have to clear a nearly insurmountable electoral hurdle, the president's advisers say.

"The difficult part for Kerry is that, as of today, he trails across the South by about 10 points. And if the Republicans carry the solid South, he will have to win 70 percent of the remaining electoral votes in the rest of the country to be elected president," said Ralph Reed, who advises the White House on campaign strategies.

Based on the latest state polls, interviews with campaign strategists and each state's electoral history, Mr. Bush appears to have 22 states safely in his column, totaling 186 electoral votes. They are: Alabama, Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia and Wyoming.

Three more states -- Arizona, Arkansas and Colorado -- totaling 25 electoral votes, are leaning toward Mr. Bush. These 25 states, all of which Mr. Bush won in 2000, would give him 211 votes out of the 270 he needs to win the presidency.

Mr. Kerry leads in 11 states plus the District, which would give him 168 electoral votes. They are: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island and Vermont. Three other states, with a combined 32 electoral votes, are leaning toward Kerry: Washington, Maine and Michigan.

These states, all of which Al Gore won in 2000, would give the Massachusetts senator a total of 200 votes.

Eleven others, with a combined 127 electoral votes, are the battleground states that will likely decide who will win the presidency in November. They are: Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, New Mexico, Ohio, Oregon, Wisconsin, West Virginia, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania.