Moscow's stance on Kyoto 'smart'

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Russia is on the verge of putting the Kyoto treaty on global warming into force, but with a wink and a nod that reflects Moscow's belief, that the toothless pact is destined to sink from its own weight.

Ever since Russian President Vladimir Putin's Cabinet approved the treaty two weeks ago and sent it to the Putin-controlled parliament for pro forma ratification this fall, his chief spokesman has been bad-mouthing the treaty, calling it one of the worst plagues to be visited on Russia and the world economy.

"It's clear the Kyoto Protocol is doomed from the longer-term perspective" because it will cause considerable harm to economic growth and progress in most nations, said Andrei Illarionov, Mr. Putin's top economic adviser. Mr. Illarionov has been traveling around Washington criticizing the treaty, which surprises many because the document was officially endorsed by the Kremlin.

By the 2012 deadline, when ratifying nations must comply with the treaty's strict limits on carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, "the lack of gains from the protocol will be so obvious to Russia, the European Union and Japan that they will decide to do something more reasonable," Mr. Illarionov said.

The Kremlin's decision to ratify was "very, very smart" and politically adroit, he said, because it keeps Russia in good graces with European countries that hold the keys to expanded trade and development in the country, while also helping avoid the taint of "unilateralism" that has haunted the United States since President Bush rejected the treaty in 2001.

The United States and Australia are the only two major developed nations that have not ratified the treaty, which goes into effect within 90 days of ratification by the Russian parliament. All 175 developing nations, including India and China, the world's second-largest energy consumer, are exempt from the treaty.

China has cited its need to grow rapidly, raise living standards and develop its economy as reasons for refusing to join the treaty, which is aimed at curbing greenhouse gases, thought to cause global warming. Most of the gases come from burning fossil fuels for essential needs such as electrical power, heating homes, driving cars and running businesses.

The Bush administration and many American economists say the more than one-third cut in U.S. emissions and energy use required by the treaty would devastate the U.S. economy.

Russian officials are no less concerned about the economic effect on their country, but the treaty gives them several years of breathing room during which Russia could keep expandingrapidly without bumping up against the emissions ceilings that eventually would crimp growth.

Mr. Illarionov estimates that if economic growth averages 5 percent per year, Russia will not reach its limits until 2011. Under the most optimistic scenario, growth could go unfettered at 8 percent per year until 2007, when the limits would be reached, he said.