North Carolina race seen as Senate key

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RALEIGH, N.C., -- Republican leaders here are working feverishly to take a Senate seat away from the Democrats by electing Rep. Richard M. Burr, who faces Democrat Erskine Bowles in a tight race that is key to determining which party will control the Senate.

"North Carolina needs him in the United States Senate," former Sen. Jesse Helms told a cheering crowd at a Tuesday night Republican rally that drew 3,000-plus to a tobacco warehouse in the rural community of Smithfield.

Most polls show the two candidates neck-and-neck -- a Mason-Dixon poll released this week has the race tied at 45 percent each, with 10 percent undecided. By all accounts, the race for the seat being vacated by Democratic vice-presidential candidate John Edwards will be a nail-biter.

"We always knew this race was going to be tight," said Schorr Johnson, communications director for the North Carolina Democratic Party. "We are absolutely encouraged about where Mr. Bowles stands."

Mr. Bowles, a Charlotte investment banker and Clinton administration chief of staff, lost to Elizabeth Dole by nine points, 45 percent to 54 percent, in his 2002 Senate bid. This time however, Mr. Bowles has done much better, and it's now Mr. Burr who has had to fight for statewide name recognition and claw his way to higher poll numbers.

Hastings Wyman, editor of the Southern Political Report, said Mr. Bowles' strength this year isn't because people don't like Mr. Burr, its because Mrs. Dole was "a larger-than-life figure in the state, with a large following," so it was particularly hard for Mr. Bowles to run against her.

Mr. Burr by contrast, was relatively unknown statewide when he began campaigning this year. Still, the five-term congressman has managed to close the gap over the past several weeks. He was helped by the timely bill passed by Congress a few weeks ago offering a tobacco buyout that North Carolina farmers had anticipated.

Ferrell Guillory, director of the Program on Southern Politics, Media and Southern Life at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, said Mr. Burr will be further helped by the fact that it's a presidential election year and the state consistently votes for the Republican presidential candidate.

"Republican Senate candidates have done especially well in this state in presidential years," he said.

But Mr. Bowles' advantages, he added, are that he has campaigned across the state previously, and that Mr. Edwards is at the top of the Democratic ticket, creating excitement in North Carolina and keeping the presidential numbers somewhat close here. State polls show Mr. Bush leading, but only by a small number of points.

Meanwhile, the candidates have sparred on national security, health care, jobs and a number of other issues. Mr. Burr describes his opponent as a big-government, Clinton-era, tax-and-spend liberal, while Mr. Bowles accuses the congressman of being a "yes-man" for Mr. Bush and special interest groups.

The tobacco buyout has turned into a major campaign issue, with both candidates touting their role in its passage. Lawmakers had worked for years to get the multibillion-dollar federal aid to Southern farmers and Mr. Bowles flew to Washington a few weeks ago to convince Senate Democrats not to block the measure.

Republicans have used its passage to boost support for Mr. Burr, especially in the rural eastern part of the state -- home to many conservative Democrats who can vote for either party and have helped decide elections in the past. At the Tuesday night rally, a massive sign hanging on the warehouse read: "Thank you Elizabeth Dole and Richard Burr for our tobacco quota buyout."

Mr. Bowles has repeatedly touted himself as an independent leader and consensus builder. During a campaign stop at Dick Shirley Chevrolet in Burlington on Wednesday, he told workers and supporters, "what I've been good at my whole life" is bringing both sides together to solve big problems. He pointed to the 1990s, when he worked with Republicans in Congress to balance the budget.

"I think we can make a real difference," he told the crowd.

That message has resonated with some. "We really do need a negotiator," said Mary Massey of Burlington, who had just voted for Mr. Bowles before stopping by the Chevy dealership to hear him speak.

Mr. Burr paints himself as the White House's candidate, stronger than Mr. Bowles on national security. And he hasn't missed a chance to connect himself with Mr. Bush. At the Smithfield rally Tuesday night, he received polite applause when he asked for listeners' help to get him to the Senate. But when he mentioned the importance of re-electing President Bush, the applause grew louder, and was accompanied by cheers and some audience members leaping out of chairs to pump fists in the air.

"It is an injustice to re-elect the president and not give him a U.S. Senate that passes his agenda into law," Mr. Burr told the cheering crowd, linking his own race to Mr. Bush's.

Mr. Burr said the election -- from the presidential race on down -- will probably be decided on character: The candidate people believe will be the best moral leader.