Critics' fears about parole abolition fail to materialize

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RICHMOND -- Opponents of parole abolition in Virginia had argued that longer prison terms would increase the inmate population drastically and lead to an expensive prison-building frenzy.

Ten years later, the state has added seven prisons and about 8,000 inmates -- a growth rate substantially lower than critics and even the General Assembly had expected.

The prison population has increased by nearly 30 percent since 1995, when parole abolition took effect, but the 35,429 inmates is far short of the 49,000 the Senate Finance Committee had predicted. Some critics had thought even that forecast was too low.

On an annual basis, the increases appear modest. The inmate census was unchanged in 1997. The biggest increase was 5.4 percent in 2002, according to the most recent Department of Criminal Justice Services (DCJS) annual report.

"Sentencing reform and the abolition of parole did not have the dramatic impact on the prison population that some critics had once feared when the reforms were first enacted," the report says.

The projected increases in the inmate population prompted a flurry of prison construction. Seven prisons with a total capacity for 8,210 inmates have opened since parole abolition, but none since 1999.

With prison space growing faster than the inmate population, the state leased vacant cells to the overcrowded prison systems of Connecticut and Texas until the number of Virginia prisoners caught up.

Officials say moving more nonviolent offenders into community correctional centers and alternative programs has helped control prison population growth. They also cite a decrease in violent crime as criminals are held behind bars longer.

"It's been overwhelmingly positive," Delegate Robert F. McDonnell, Virginia Beach Republican, said of parole abolition. "We've seen the recidivism rate go down and the overall crime rate go down."

According to the U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics, the violent-crime rate in Virginia went from 361.5 crimes per 100,000 population in 1995 to 291.4 per 100,000 in 2002, the last year for which figures are available.