Uncertain path in Northern Ireland

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"We are satisfied that the arms decommissioned represent the totality of the IRA's arsenal," said Canadian General John de Chastelain on Monday when, as head of the independent monitoring body, he confirmed the Irish Republican Army finally had destroyed its arms cache.

His conclusion was echoed by the two Catholic and Methodist clergymen who witnessed the destruction.

And it was accompanied by British and Irish government leaks to the effect that, after this "historic development," the Northern Ireland power-sharing Executive, including Sinn Fein's Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness as ministers of the Crown, would soon be up and running again -- probably by New Year.

Not before rain fell on this parade, however, from a cloud no bigger than a man's hand.

In the same Monday press conference, Gen. de Chastelain qualified his conclusion, saying, "We can never be completely certain." They had to rely to some extent on the IRA's word.

His Finnish decommissioning colleague added to the uncertainty when he seemed to confirm no weapons destroyed dated later than 1996. The IRA is known to have acquired weapons in 1999 (one was used to murder a dissident.)

And in a third and especially significant wrinkle, a writer in the Guardian (the British newspaper most sympathetic to Irish republicanism) alleged a deal was forged behind Gen. de Chastelain's back between the British government and the IRA that would allow the slightly former terrorists to retain side arms for self-defense.

What are we to make of these cross-currents? The smart money in Anglo-Irish journalism suggests the IRA destroyed the heavy stuff it no longer needs against the British Army. After all, the war against the British state is over. But it is quietly keeping smaller arms it needs to enforce its authority against dissenters in the Catholic ghettoes.

In the mordant words of Henry MacDonald in the Guardian: "These handguns ... remind those inside the nationalist community who are not "on message" with Sinn Fein that to challenge the hegemony of the republican movement can still have fatal consequences."

Still, the threat of bombing London apparently has ended. That is enough for London, Dublin and Washington to declare the IRA has purged its sins and its Siamese twin, Sinn Fein, therefore eligible to return to ministerial office.