Endangered Democrats

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By Donald Lambro

As soon as Republican Rep. Michael N. Castle announced last week that he was running for Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr.'s open Senate seat, election analysts rated the contest a tossup favoring the Republican Party.

Mr. Biden's seat had been rated safely Democratic by all the forecasters.

However, the nine-term congressman and former two-term Delaware governor, who has never lost an election (winning vote totals in the 60 percent to 70 percent range) changed all that with his entry into the race. The Democrats were in danger of losing yet another Senate seat in 2010.

Veteran election handicapper Stu Rothenberg immediately moved the race from Safe for Democrats to Lean Takeover for the GOP. The Cook Political Report's senior analyst, Jennifer Duffy, said it becomes "the fourth Democratic-held seat that is too close to call, further leveling the Senate playing field for national Republicans."

It was the latest piece of good news for Republicans. who, after nearly nine months of the Obama presidency, have seen the American political landscape change dramatically in their favor.

At least a half dozen Democratic Senate seats are vulnerable, two dozen Democratic House seats have been given "competitive" ratings favoring the Republican Party, contributions are pouring into Republican campaign committees, and generic ballot preference polls have virtually erased the Democrats' once-sizable lead.

"The president's standing has weakened, Democrats are on the defensive on the economy, spending and health care, and key midterm voting groups - including seniors and independents - are moving away from the Democrats and toward the GOP," Mr. Rothenberg told his newsletter subscribers last month.

Mr. Castle's candidacy was another recruiting home run for Texas Sen. John Cornyn, chairman of the National Republican Campaign Committee, who has turned his party's bleak midterm prospects into what could be a gain or two.

In Democratic-leaning New Hampshire, polls show former state Attorney General Kelly Ayotte, a political newcomer, is leading Democrat Rep. Paul W. Hodes by seven points.

Among the Democrats' troubles elsewhere: Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is running behind his Republican opponents in Nevada, as is Arkansas Sen. Blanche Lincoln, who trails all four of her Republican challengers. Even Mr. Obama's old Senate seat is at risk in heavily Democratic Illinois, where Republican Rep. Mark Steven Kirk, in a show of strength, has raised more than $1.6 million in the third quarter in a race in which his opponents have ethical problems in a state marred by widespread corruption.