BALTIMORE | Around this time a year ago, American coach Jeff Jones pretty much knew what was in store for his team.
The Eagles returned the starting backcourt from the school’s first NCAA tournament team and were pegged to win the Patriot League. Sure enough, American earned a return trip.
A third straight postseason berth might be tougher to forecast. Well, just about everything is tougher to forecast, considering American’s current roster combined for one start when the Eagles went 24-8 a year ago.
“It’s not a matter of if. It’s a matter of when,” Jones said at the Patriot League’s media day Thursday. “Hopefully it’ll be sooner rather than later. Maybe it’ll be next year. I don’t know. But if we’re not moving forward, we’re not going to reach that level.”
The coaches and sports information directors participating in the league’s preseason poll would seem to think that jump might happen later. The Eagles were picked sixth in the eight-team league, with Navy pegged for seventh.
Holy Cross, under new coach Sean Kearney, is the preseason favorite.
Expectations, though, don’t fully factor in some significant elements for American. The Eagles have never produced a sub-.500 conference record in eight years in the Patriot League, and they have reached at least the conference semifinals in all of those seasons.
More important for this year, American will add Vlad Moldoveanu, a George Mason transfer who will become eligible after the fall semester and joins Nick Hendra and Stephen Lumpkins as the Eagles’ top offensive options.
The potential for some trying times does exist. American cannot rely on Garrison Carr and Derrick Mercer anymore to carry them through tough spots. Instead, the Eagles will have plenty to learn before league play arrives in January.
“Improvement has to be our focus,” Jones said. “Looking at the shorter term, we want to win every game we can possibly win. But winning or losing, we have to make sure we move forward and progress.”
There’s a similar priority at Navy, which increased its victory total the last three seasons under coach Billy Lange while emerging as one of the league’s steadiest teams.
The Midshipmen (19-11 last season) did lose Kaleo Kina, the league’s leading scorer, but it’s not a new situation. Navy coped with replacing Greg Sprink a season earlier and merely secured the program’s best season since 2001.
Senior guard Chris Harris, whose 15.4-point average last year leads the league among returning players, figures to emerge as the primary scorer, and a healthy Romeo Garcia on the perimeter and an improved Mark Veazey in the paint could permit Navy to contend again.
Those aren’t sure things, although Lange believes there is enough in place to continue the program’s upward arc - even if the preseason vote doesn’t reflect it.
“Coaches are smart people, so they know how hard it is two years in a row to replace the leading scorer in the league,” Lange said. “I don’t know if any other team in the country has had that dubious distinction. We now have to do it, and people could have question marks on some of our guys, and they could have question marks on me. I don’t really know. To be honest with you, I don’t even care. It’s not something I even mention.”
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