Oslo redux?

The election of Mahmoud Abbas as president of the Palestinian Authority has heightened hopes that Israel and the Palestinians can progress toward a peace settlement. The successful meeting last week between Mr. Abbas and Ariel Sharon, during which the Israeli prime minister invited Mr. Abbas to visit him at his ranch, is but the latest sign of progress. At the same time, however, some cautionary notes are in order.

In many ways, the situation today bears a good deal of resemblance to the early part of the Oslo era — the two- to three-year period following the Sept. 13, 1993, signing of the Declaration of Principles by Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin and PLO Chairman Yasser Arafat, with President Clinton looking on. For example, Mr. Sharon is withdrawing Israeli troops from the West Bank town of Jericho (the pullout could occur as early as today), giving security responsibility there to the Palestinians. Nearly 11 years ago, Mr. Rabin withdrew from Jericho. If Palestinian security forces keep their commitment to fight terrorism in Jericho, Israel is prepared to hand over Ramallah, Bethlehem, Qalqilya and Tulkarem — much as it withdrew from major West Bank cities in late 1995. As was the case during the Arafat-Rabin era, Egypt is currently playing an important role in facilitating Israeli-Palestinian talks.

It remains to be seen whether Mr. Abbas will prove to be willing and able to do what Mr. Arafat refused to do: mount a sustained campaign against Palestinian rejectionist groups like Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. Much as Mr. Arafat promised in 1993 but utterly failed to deliver on, Mr. Abbas says he will attempt to persuade these groups to end terrorism and join the Palestinian Authority’s security forces. Both organizations receive substantial backing from Syria, which remains as determined as ever to wreck any chances for an Israeli-Palestinian settlement. Moreover, in the wake of Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanon five years ago, Hezbollah (and, by extension, its chief backer, Iran) now plays a major and independent role in bankrolling and directing terrorism in the West Bank and Gaza.

Nonetheless, there are important factors at work that may make it possible for Messrs. Sharon and Abbas to succeed where Oslo failed. Unlike Mr. Rabin, who refused to relinquish West Bank or Gaza settlements, Mr. Sharon is forging ahead with a plan to do that. Mr. Rabin was politically unable to commit to an independent Palestinian state if they carry out their security commitments; Mr. Sharon has done so. Unlike Messrs. Rabin and Clinton — who were willing to overlook Mr. Arafat’s flagrant violations of his peace commitments — Messrs. Bush and Sharon have demonstrated that they have a very different way of doing business. And, for his part, Mr. Abbas has taken some positive steps, including the resumption of security cooperation with Israel. The real test will come when Hamas, which is using the cease-fire to re-arm, tries to carry out its next large-scale attack.