Putin’s modus operandi

Vladimir Putin would “prefer to abandon the terminology of the past” and drop the phrase “energy superpower,” frequently used to describe Russia. At first glance, one might assume that he would simply like the qualifier “energy” left off. But that was not what the Russian president had in mind.

“We don’t want superpower status,” Mr. Putin told reporters during an interview at his country house. “We believe this status is deliberately fostered within the EU in order to remind [people] that Russia [used to be] the evil Soviet Union.” This is a startling disassociation from a former KGB officer who has very publicly lamented the downfall of the Soviet Union. Moreover, he has demonstrated his commitment to an assertive, Russo-centric foreign policy that places Russia outside of, and often at odds with, the NATO countries. That policy was reinforced during the interview, as Mt. Putin declared his intention to increase energy exports to Asia from 3 percent to 30 percent over the next 10 or 15 years and — as has become characteristic — launched barbs at the United States and the European Union.

Whether or not Mr. Putin likes the label “energy superpower,” the term is apt. Russia’s return to prominence on the world stage is clearly linked to its energy resources. Since 1999, when Mr. Putin took the reins, Russia has increased its oil production by close to 60 percent and surpassed Saudi Arabia as the world’s largest oil producer. During the same years, oil prices have skyrocketed. Less than a decade after defaulting on its foreign debt and suffering a near total economic collapse, Russia has a large budget surplus. The Russian economy is, however, overdependent on its natural resources, and a drop in oil and gas prices would lead the unbalanced economy back into the gutter.

In addition to the economic benefits, Mr. Putin can use his energy resources as political leverage, as he did in January by shutting down shipments of natural gas through the Ukraine in order to secure cheap rates for gas shipments to the EU. Planning for a ten-fold increase of oil and natural gas exports to Asia, which will result in sharp price increases and shortages in Europe, is one sure way that Mr. Putin can keep in place the negative connotations of “energy superpower.”

With his energy politics, Mr. Putin is on his way to alienating Europe, and with his duplicity in the Middle East he is placing Russia at odds with the United States. During a press conference with President Bush before the G-8 summit in July, Mr. Putin smirked as he jeered Iraq’s progress toward democracy, even as Mr. Bush diplomatically approached the issue of fading democracy in Russia. Washington should know Mr. Putin’s modus operandi: While criticizing the Iranian nuclear program, Russia opposes sanctions and continues, according to reports, to sell Iran advanced uranium enrichment technology. Mr. Putin should recognize the dangerous consequences of pursuing this path toward an assertive foreign policy.