GUATEMALA CITY — A new poll shows former military strongman Efrain Rios Montt slipping out of contention in Guatemala’s presidential contest, easing fears among human rights groups and in the Bush administration.
The survey was conducted between July 28 and Aug. 4 by the Guatemalan firm Vox Latina, the week after supporters of Mr. Rios Montt’s ruling Guatemalan Republican Front (FRG) went on a violent rampage in the capital. It shows the former dictator dropping to fifth place with only 3.3 percent support.
The poll also shows the front-runner, Oscar Berger of a new coalition called the Grand National Alliance (GANA), within striking distance of a first-round victory on Nov. 9 with 44.4 percent.
A distant second was Alvaro Colom, candidate of a left-wing coalition called the National Unity of Hope (UNE), with 17.1 percent. Leonel Lopez Rodas, candidate of the former ruling Party of National Advancement (PAN), was third with 4.1 percent, statistically tied with Guatemala City Mayor Fritz Garcia-Gallont of the Unionist Party, who had 3.9 percent.
Mr. Berger and Mr. Garcia-Gallont are both defectors from the PAN because of an intraparty turf battle.
The survey, commissioned by the daily newspaper Prensa Libre and two affiliated papers, included 1,200 respondents from throughout the country and claims a margin of error of five percentage points.
In the last Vox Latina poll on July 2, Mr. Berger had 36.9 percent, Mr. Colom 13.1 percent and Mr. Rios Montt 7.9 percent.
“The polls for more than a year have shown a downward trend for [Mr. Rios Montt] because of corruption and unkept promises,” Mr. Berger said in an interview Thursday.
Mr. Berger, who lost the 1999 election to the FRG’s Alfonso Portillo, cited his own poll showing him winning a first-round victory with 51 percent, but he said he fears the FRG will take advantage of its control of the government to commit fraud.
“[Rios Montts] popularity is stronger in the rural areas, where they have a very disciplined organization, where they have undertaken public works,” added Mr. Berger, who turned 57 yesterday.
“We don’t worry that much about actual electoral fraud, but about intimidation. These are some very violent people, and the [Indians] are very timid people. They are very easy to intimidate.”
About 60 percent of Guatemala’s 12 million people are of pure Mayan descent. Mr. Berger is of Belgian descent.
Interviewed Friday, Mr. Rios Montt’s daughter, Zury Rios, the second vice president of Congress, discounted polls showing her father’s drop in popularity as a gimmick of what she called “the oligarchy.”
“Polls in Guatemala are not very sophisticated, and you can make them say whatever you want them to say,” she said.
On July 24, which the media here have labeled “Jueves Negro,” or Black Thursday, hundreds of Indian peasants were paid $40 and given three meals in return for being trucked in from the interior to participate in demonstrations protesting a decision by the Supreme Court delaying the certification of Mr. Rios Montt’s candidacy.
For years, Mr. Rios Montt, 77, who ruled as strongman from 1982-83 and is blamed by human rights organizations for committing genocide during Guatemala’s 36-year civil war, was barred from running by a provision in the 1986 constitution that blocks those who have participated in military coups from seeking the presidency.
Polls at one time showed that he could win the presidency, his popularity credited to his hard-fisted response to street crime and to left-wing insurgents.
On July 14, the Constitutionality Court, a majority of which is composed of FRG appointees, voted 4-2 to overturn the ban and permit Mr. Rios Montt to run. But the implementation of that decision was delayed by the Supreme Court.
The subsequent demonstrations turned violent when dozens of FRG supporters wearing ski masks and carrying clubs committed acts of vandalism, burned tires and attacked journalists, one of whom died of a heart attack.
The anti-Rios Montt media published photographs and aired video footage of FRG deputies, high-ranking party officials and Mr. Rios Montt’s niece, Ingrid Argueta, participating in the disturbances.
Mario Antonio Sandoval, a political columnist for Prensa Libre and the president of the paper’s new cable channel, Guatevision, linked the violence on Black Thursday to Mr. Rios Montt’s precipitous drop in the newest poll.
“Guatemalans reject violence, especially when someone who has been accused of violence is being violent again,” said Mr. Sandoval, who considers it necessary to travel accompanied by bodyguards because of his harsh criticism of Mr. Rios Montt in his column and because of Guatevision’s hard-hitting coverage of the violence.
Mr. Rios Montt, who is now president of the Congress, and the FRG have denied they orchestrated the violence, but their denials were contradicted in a report released Thursday by the U.N. Verification Mission to Guatemala that cited overwhelming evidence of the FRG’s role.
Asked about the report, Mrs. Rios said, “The U.N. mission has become very politicized.”
Mr. Sandoval said Mr. Rios Montt “hanged himself when he announced that the mob was going to withdraw and they withdrew in five minutes. This proof of violence is what Guatemalans don’t like. He is the violence. He means the violence.”
Prensa Libre reported Sunday that several of the FRG supporters identified during the demonstrations, including Mrs. Argueta, were rewarded by being named to the party’s list of candidates for Congress.
So was Lucrecia Marroquin de Palomo, wife of the Constitutionality Court judge who cast the deciding vote in favor of allowing Mr. Rios Montt to run.
Fear of possible vote fraud was heightened last week when newspapers reported that 240 of the country’s 331 municipalities — virtually all of them controlled by the FRG — had failed to provide the nonpartisan Supreme Electoral Tribunal with lists of voters who had died since May.
The opposition parties and press and human rights groups also have questioned the disappearance of 80,000 blank cedulas, or national ID cards, from a government warehouse.
The Portillo government also has been hammered by the press for a series of corruption scandals. Mr. Portillo himself is under investigation for the suspected channeling of hundreds of thousands of dollars in illegal funds into a private Panamanian bank account.
On Thursday, the Supreme Court stripped an FRG congressional deputy, Carlos Wohlers, of his legislative immunity so he could stand trial for a suspected land fraud deal while he was chairman of the board of the Guatemalan Social Security Institute that involved about $40 million of institute funds.
On Friday, the press also marked the 20th anniversary of Mr. Rios Montt’s 1983 overthrow, reminding readers of his fanatical evangelicism and his efforts to maintain himself in power.
If a runoff is necessary, it will be held Dec. 28.
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