Israeli report sees EU confrontation

JERUSALEM — Israel is set on a collision course with the European Union and could turn into a pariah state, like South Africa during the apartheid years, if the Middle East conflict is not resolved, Israel’s Foreign Ministry warns in a confidential 10-year forecast.

The document, put together by the ministry’s Center for Political Research, says the European Union is pushing to become a major global player in the next decade, and as a result, the United States, Israel’s main ally, could lose international influence. The forecast, written for internal consumption, was obtained by the Associated Press yesterday.

The analysts wrote that if the European Union, a 25-nation alliance, overcomes internal divisions and speaks in one voice, its global influence would grow considerably, and be more in line with its powerful economy.

A more influential Europe likely would demand greater Israeli compliance with international conventions and could try to limit Israel’s freedom of action in its conflict with the Palestinians, the 25-page document said. Israel also might have to pay a price for growing competition between the European Union and the United States.

Israeli-EU relations have long been shaky, and Israeli Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom has warned repeatedly that Israel has to work to strengthen ties with Europe. However, Israel accuses the Europeans of pro-Palestinian bias and complains of a growing wave of anti-Semitism in parts of Europe.

EU officials in Brussels said that although the European Union and Israel have sound relations in trade and scientific research, they have definite differences over Middle East peacemaking.

They also said the alliance is seeking more of a say. “Regarding the Middle East peace process and our relations with Israel and the Palestinians, there is no doubt that the role of the EU has increased,” said Christina Gallach, a spokeswoman for EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana.

“We have had difficult moments [with Israel] when we responded to things like the West Bank wall and now what is happening in Gaza,” Miss Gallach said, referring to Israel’s separation barrier in the West Bank and a major military offensive in Gaza.

The European Union says Israel’s planned withdrawal from the Gaza Strip next year must be followed by major troop withdrawals in the West Bank, and pave the way for Palestinian statehood. “None of this is exactly what the Israelis want to hear, but we have to say it,” Miss Gallach said.

She said the Israeli government wants to broaden the relationship with Europe, without giving the European Union a bigger role in resolving the Middle East conflict.

The Foreign Ministry document, said Israel could become increasingly isolated in the coming years if Europe becomes more influential.

“In extreme circumstances, this could put Israel on a collision course with the European Union. Such a collision course holds the risk of Israel losing international legitimacy and could lead to its isolation, in the manner of South Africa,” the document said.