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OPINION:
Iran’s leadership understands that it cannot defeat the United States, or even Israel, in a conventional war — so it is betting that it can outlast a fractured West.
Iran believes it can impose terms and claim victory if Washington and its NATO allies remain divided.
That may prove correct, which would be a tragedy far beyond the Persian Gulf. This is about whether the West still functions as an alliance or has become a loose collection of quarrelsome states incapable of defending shared interests.
It is not always easy to align with President Trump, whose record with America’s allies has included flirting with seizing Greenland from NATO ally Denmark and supporting movements that attack the European Union.
Yet failure to back him against the Iranian regime would convey the impression that maritime trade is no longer secure, autocracies can exploit democratic disunity and the West can no longer tolerate pain.
That outcome is unacceptable, yet it is the picture Iran sees. Thus, Iran isn’t blinking, and the Strait of Hormuz — through which more than one-fifth of the world’s oil supply flows — remains effectively blocked. So do all of Iran’s ports.
The regime should be fearing strangulation, yet it figures the West will break first.
Mr. Trump should understand that weakening the alliance was a terrible mistake. Repairing the rupture with America’s erstwhile European allies is a strategic necessity, and this is something that every one of the president’s generals (and surely Secretary of State Marco Rubio) should be explaining to him.
Mr. Trump must reverse course, which means ending interference in European politics, ceasing rhetorical attacks on NATO partners and recognizing that collective defense is not a transactional arrangement. Article V of the NATO treaty is not a blank check for unilateral American action; it is a commitment to mutual defense against aggression.
For Europe, it would mean swallowing considerable pride. NATO members have ample reason to distrust Mr. Trump, whose National Security Strategy, released late last year, essentially constituted an attack on Europe. The American commander in chief seems to prefer dictators to democrats and Russian leader Vladimir Putin, a war criminal, to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Yet Europe cannot afford to let indignation dictate policy in an immature way. It will need to come up with some courage to confront its fear of alienating Muslim minorities and vocal constituencies sympathetic to anti-Western narratives.
If Mr. Trump shows restraint, regret and humility, then the Europeans will likely eat humble pie and support the U.S. effort against Iran.
Still, the message must be unambiguous.
First, the Strait of Hormuz must reopen and remain open. It is not Iranian territory. Any attempt to extort ships using the waterway must be treated as an attack on NATO and the world.
Second, negotiations must proceed in good faith. The West’s demands — ending the quest for a nuclear weapon and all support for regional proxy militias that undermine Arab countries — are a consensus baseline expectation. The Europeans know it and must say it.
Third, there can be no more massacres of protesters, and Iran will not have normal international relations without democratic reforms.
Engagement was tried in the 2015 nuclear agreement under President Barack Obama. It constrained Iran’s nuclear ambitions, but it also allowed it free rein to brutalize its people and the region, inter alia, causing almost half a million deaths in the war started by the Houthis in Yemen.
Mr. Trump’s abrogation of the agreement was possibly unwise and opened the floodgates to enrichment, but it was a deal with the devil, and no equivalent should now be available.
Since its inception in 1979, Iran’s revolutionary regime has demonstrated remarkable endurance. Since the Iran hostage crisis, it has thrived on confrontation. It was never going to end happily.
To Europe, America may be led by a figure whose judgment, behavior and temperament inspire little confidence. In confronting Iran, Mr. Trump is not wrong. He just needs a better plan, and that begins with a Western alliance.
Without such a reset, Iran will continue to exploit its “asymmetric” advantage. If a semblance of unity can be restored, then the strategic picture changes dramatically.
Dear Europeans, your history should teach you two critical things: First, Americans can help you, and second, you simply cannot run away from every fight.
• Dan Perry is a former Europe-Africa and Middle East editor of The Associated Press. Follow him at danperry.substack.com.
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