Inflation is speeding up, not slowing down, weeks before the midterm elections

By Tom Howell Jr. - The Washington Times - Wednesday, October 14, 2026

Consumer prices rose 0.6% in September after rising 0.4% in August, the government said Wednesday in a report that showed inflation accelerating heading into Election Day.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the Consumer Price Index rose 3.7% for the year ending in September, up from the 3.4% annual reading in August.

Energy prices drove the increase as supply shocks in the Middle East caused market turmoil — and political headaches for President Trump, who launched the war against Iran in late February.

People were interested in these podcasts

“The index for gasoline rose 9.1 percent in September, accounting for over half of the monthly all items increase,” the bureau said Wednesday in its summary.

Shelter prices were up slightly, while food prices were relatively steady.

Shelter prices rose 0.4% in September after up 0.3% in August, while the food index was relatively steady, with food away from home up 0.2% and food at home down 0.1%. Apparel prices rose 0.3%, while used cars and trucks were up 0.7%.

“High gas and diesel prices are the major driver, but also big jumps in airfares, used car prices, recreation, medical and apparel. The energy shock is spreading,” said Heather Long, the chief economist at the Navy Federal Credit Union, on social media.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, rose 0.3% in September — the same as August.

Wall Street stocks dove into negative territory after the report because Treasury yields ticked higher, as bondholders eye economic risks and demand a premium.

The CPI measures what American consumers pay for common goods and services and will help the Federal Reserve determine whether to raise interest rates at its next meeting on Oct. 27-28.

Central bankers raised rates in September and signaled another hike is coming, though economists bet the Fed will wait until December rather than raise rates before the election.

CME Fedwatch on Wednesday forecast a nearly 42% chance of a rate increase at the Fed’s October meeting, up from 22% before the inflation report.

“The Federal Reserve is not certain to raise interest rates at its next meeting in two weeks, but it will almost certainly raise rates before the end of the year,” said Ryan Young, a senior economist at the Competitive Enterprise Institute. “Raising rates will help to fight inflation a little bit, but with the tradeoff of potentially raising unemployment or slowing the economy. Since both employment and GDP growth are in decent shape, the Fed has some cushion to work with, making its inflation-fighting job easier.”

Inflation surged during the Biden administration and remains above the Fed’s 2% target rate under Mr. Trump, who is dealing with voters’ concerns about high prices heading into the November midterms.

Voters say the cost of living is their top concern ahead of November elections that will reshape Congress.

Democrats accuse Mr. Trump of failing to tame prices as promised and keeping them elevated through tariffs on imported goods and his war on Iran, which increased oil and gasoline prices by straggling petroleum deliveries from the Middle East.

Annual inflation stood at 3% in January 2025.

“President Trump promised to end inflation and lower costs ‘on Day 1.’ More than 600 days into his second term, he has done the exact opposite, driving up costs for American families with his disastrous war in Iran and reckless tariff taxes,” said Rep. Brendan Boyle, Pennsylvania Democrat and ranking member of the House Budget Committee.

Americans saw price relief in June, when the CPI fell more than expected. Inflation eased because energy prices fell when tensions cooled in the Middle East.

But the U.S. and Iranian militaries reengaged after the mid-June agreement fell apart, resulting in new energy shocks.

Mr. Trump says prices will come down once the conflict with Iran is over, and that short-term pain is worth the goal of preventing Tehran from having a nuclear weapon.

Mr. Trump likes to remind voters that inflation hit 9% under President Biden and that gasoline prices soared to record highs in 2022.

“They gave us the worst inflation in American history,” Mr. Trump told supporters in Youngstown, Ohio, on Monday. “The highest energy prices in American history, by the way, much higher than it is now.”

Congressional Republicans say voters should keep them in control of Congress, pointing to sky-high costs when Democrats were in power.

“Every family that has stood at the gas pump or in the grocery line knows prices are still too high,” said House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith, Missouri Republican. “That pain traces back to Joe Biden and Congressional Democrats, whose $10 trillion spending spree when they had full control of the White House, House, and Senate sent our country into a cost-of-living crisis — the impact of which Americans are still feeling today.”