The U.S. Senate race in deep-red South Carolina is so unusual this year that Democrats think they have a shot.
Democrats have not won a Senate race since 1998. This year, however, the appointed Republican incumbent, Sen. Darline Graham, is a publicity-shy political newbie, and her campaign is causing concerns.
“It is a very unique race,” said Jaime Harrison, a former Democratic National Committee chairman who tried to unseat Sen. Lindsey Graham in 2020, falling 10 percentage points short but shattering Democratic fundraising records. Mr. Harrison said he has told Democratic nominee Annie Andrews, “I would give my right arm to run in this type of environment.”
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He added, “She’s not running against an incumbent; she’s running against a political neophyte, and Darline, she is not doing a whole lot of events.”
Still, a Republican loss in South Carolina would be a shock and likely mean a midterm bloodbath for the party.
“It is such an uphill battle,” said Chip Felkel, a South Carolina-based Republican strategist. “You can’t say it is impossible, but you have to have a perfect storm, and they think they are getting close to one with the situation with Sen. Graham.”
Graham campaign spokesperson T.W. Arrighi said Ms. Graham has a “wide pathway to victory.”
“Annie Andrews has spent the last five weeks, and during the Republican primary, running millions of dollars worth of ads misleading voters about who she is and what she stands for,” Mr. Arrighi said. “During this final month of the campaign, we will continue to show — using Annie’s own words — that she is a wolf in sheep’s clothing, and the most liberal Democrat to ever seek federal office in South Carolina.”
How did the Republicans get in this spot?
It started with Sen. Lindsey Graham’s sudden death on July 11. Gov. Henry McMaster appointed Graham’s sister, Ms. Graham, to the seat with President Trump’s blessing. Republicans then faced an unusual special primary on Aug. 11 to pick their nominee for November.
Nobody cleared 50%. Ms. Graham and Rep. Ralph Norman went to an Aug. 25 runoff, and she won it. Still, the process, including the deluge of outside primary spending for Ms. Graham and against Mr. Norman, left some Republicans sour.
That frustration has followed her into the general election against Ms. Andrews, a practicing pediatrician. A write-in campaign for Mr. Norman has taken shape, which he has disavowed, but Democrats are happy to point out that his wife continued to promote it online. Some Republican strategists worry that disaffected Republican voters — many already frustrated with rising costs and the Iran war — could drift toward the Libertarian candidate, Kasie Whitener, or stay on the sidelines.
Ms. Graham has also kept a low profile and has barely appeared on television.
The race drew fresh attention after The Trafalgar Group, an Atlanta-based firm, released a poll Sept. 26 that put Ms. Graham just 1 percentage point ahead of Ms. Andrews. Roughly 6% of likely voters said they planned to vote for someone else, and nearly 9% were undecided.
The survey also showed a split by age and gender. Ms. Graham won voters 50 and older and men, while Ms. Andrews was the clear favorite among younger voters and women.
Robert Cahaly, the Trafalgar Group’s chief pollster, said Ms. Andrews was winning over 18% of likely Republican voters. He warned that the race is a “jump ball” and the Graham campaign does not “have the money they need.”
“Too many Republican donors think that race is not really a race and not taking the race as seriously as it needs to be,” Mr. Cahaly said. “It doesn’t need to be super funded. It just needs to be funded.”
Ms. Graham sounded the alarm in a recent fundraising email, telling supporters that voters “are only hearing from Annie Andrews” and “we’re running out of time to get on the air.”
A sense of urgency for Republicans has not taken hold in the longtime Republican stronghold.
The Senate Leadership Fund, which is affiliated with Senate Majority Leader John Thune, and MAGA Inc., the group tied to Mr. Trump, have been mum about their general spending plans in South Carolina.
Ms. Graham is getting some help from the Security is Strength super PAC, which recently started hitting Ms. Andrews for supporting transgender treatments for minors and allowing transgender women to compete in female sports.
“Annie Andrews is for they-them, not for our values, not for South Carolina,” says a TV spot.
Ms. Andrews, meanwhile, is playing to crossover voters and putting her Republican father in ads.
“I watch Fox News, and I voted for Lindsey Graham,” her father says in an ad. “Look, Annie’s not some crazy socialist. She’s also a great mom, and in the Senate, I know she’ll make us all proud.”
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