President Trump is leaning into his vow to pay a $5,000 “dividend” to every U.S. adult citizen if Republicans win the midterms, saying he will pay for the checks by tapping into surging investment in U.S. manufacturing.
Mr. Trump reiterated the pledge despite bipartisan pushback after he debuted the idea at the Republican midterm convention.
In his latest pitch, Mr. Trump said he would pay for the checks with revenue the U.S. is reaping from foreign investment in data centers, pharmaceutical plants and other U.S. factories, as countries scramble to avoid his tariffs.
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“The Trump Dividend is approximately $1 trillion. But we have a record-setting $21 trillion that is being invested in our country in just the last 15 months,” Mr. Trump said Saturday in a Truth Social video. “So it’s actually a very easy thing to do, for me.”
The idea, which would cost the federal government roughly $1.22 trillion based on $5,000 checks for 245 million adults, is drawing scrutiny. Trump has described the cost as “approximately $1 trillion.”
Mr. Trump’s investment figure is nearly double the $11.2 trillion listed on the White House website and appears to conflate private-industry commitments with Treasury revenue that can be redistributed as government checks to Americans.
“Those are private-sector investments that will generate private-sector income, which could be taxed and used to pay bills. But there’s no direct flow of cash to the Treasury,” said Douglas Holtz-Eakin, a former director of the Congressional Budget Office and the current president of the American Action Forum, a center-right nonprofit.
Alex Durante, a senior economist at the Tax Foundation, said revenue from Mr. Trump’s tariffs alone would not be sufficient to fund the checks.
“Not enough tariff revenue has been collected to pay a dividend that large; doing so would require substantial borrowing, contrary to the president’s claims,” he said.
Mr. Trump has spoken loosely about economic ideas throughout his second term.
He treats trade deficits with other countries as a direct loss for the U.S., rather than as a byproduct of consumer demand, supply chains and other economic factors that carry pros and cons for Americans.
Also, the president often characterizes tariffs as payments from other countries rather than as charges on importers who pass them on to consumers.
“The tariffs were somehow supposed to generate money from abroad. They don’t. Our people and companies pay them. He’s fond of conflating these different concepts,” Mr. Holtz-Eakin said.
Mr. Trump first promised the dividend payment during the Republicans’ midterm convention in Dallas in September.
He said that if Republicans retain the House and Senate, each of the roughly 245 million adult citizens in the U.S. — a figure slightly below the Census Bureau’s estimate of 258 million — will receive a $5,000 check.
Democrats seek a net gain of three seats to take the House and four seats to win the Senate majority. They have panned Mr. Trump’s idea as a bribe to thwart a blue wave in November.
They said Mr. Trump cannot be trusted to pay the money anyway, after floating similar payouts from the Department of Government Efficiency and individual $2,000 checks from tariff revenue. Neither of those came to fruition.
Some Republicans rallied behind Mr. Trump’s idea. Others were skeptical, saying that checks for everyone would add to the deficit or fuel inflation.
Mr. Trump said the U.S. can handle the payments because plenty of money is pouring in from foreign countries and investors who want to make products in America.
“The Trump dividend is approximately $1 trillion, but we have a record-setting $21 trillion that’s being invested in our country in just 15 months,” Mr. Trump told supporters in Mobile, Alabama, on Friday. “It’s very handleable, and when you spend it and recirculate it in our country, it costs us far less than it sounds. So we’re going to do that $5,000 for everybody if we win. We’ve got to win.”
Mr. Trump says his tariff program forced countries such as Japan, South Korea and India to build in America to avoid the levies and that companies want to tap into a robust and skilled U.S. workforce.
A White House webpage on “The Trump Effect,” a shorthand term for investments in American manufacturing, technology and infrastructure, lists $11.2 trillion in promised investments from leading drugmakers, technology companies and foreign governments.
“That’s adding up commitments that may or may not materialize, quite frankly,” Mr. Holtz-Eakin said.
Mr. Durante said the $21 trillion figure from Mr. Trump likely includes announced, though nonbinding, commitments from other nations beyond what is listed on the White House website.
The Washington Times asked the White House how U.S. investments could be considered a revenue source for the dividend checks. The White House response included a comment stating that Mr. Trump would keep his pledges.
“The doomers and naysayers have consistently doubted President Trump: when he pledged to create the historic Trump Accounts, lowered prescription prices with Most Favored Nations, secured the border with no crossings, cleaned up our streets, ended taxes on tips, grew real wages, renegotiated broken trade deals, and reshored key manufacturing back to the United States,” White House spokesman Davis Ingle said. “President Trump has consistently proven his doubters wrong, drawing a clear contrast with the Democrats’ record of historic inflation, unfettered illegal immigration, skyrocketing crime, and weakness on the world stage.”
Mr. Trump’s attempt to tether investments to the dividend is the latest twist in his administration’s push to explain how it would pay for the promised checks.
In September, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said revenue sources could include the Trump Platinum Card, which requires payments from wealthy foreigners who want to stay in the U.S. for an extended period. He also pointed to revenue from government shares in companies such as Intel.
Over the weekend, Mr. Trump said the payouts would be possible only under Republican policies, so voters should choose wisely.
“If the Democrats win, you will have an economic depression much like 1929. If the Republicans win, you will each have $5,000 in your pocket,” Mr. Trump said in his video. “I look forward to signing those checks.”
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